What's luck got to do with it? The math of gambling

Everything in life is a bit of a gamble. You could spend months turning down job offers because the next one might be better, or keep laying bets on the roulette table just in case you win. Knowing when to stop can be as much of an asset as knowing how to win. Once again, mathematics can help.

If you have trouble knowing when to quit, try getting your head around "diminishing returns" - the optimal stopping tool. The best way to demonstrate diminishing returns is the so-called marriage problem. Suppose you are told you must marry, and that you must choose your spouse out of 100 applicants. You may interview each applicant once. After each interview you must decide whether to marry that person. If you decline, you lose the opportunity forever. If you work your way through 99 applicants without choosing one, you must marry the 100th. You may think you have 1 in 100 chance of marrying your ideal partner, but the truth is that you can do a lot better than that.

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